Keys 2 Sunday
Week 15 Previews
Just one week ago the Chiefs battled the Chargers in what was considered a do or die game for the boys from San Diego. It’s not quite the same this week for the Chiefs, but in many ways it could be considered close. With the Chargers nipping at their heels, the Chiefs can ill-afford to lose anymore ground.
As the team heads to St. Louis, they face what could be a daunting task without their starting quarterback Matt Cassel. There have been no updates this morning (yet), but if Cassel is not available today this will open the door for the Rams to steal this one away.
One of the big keys for the Rams defensively will be to stack the line. Last week without Cassel the Chiefs offense was only able to muster 40 yards passing. There are not likely to struggle to the same degree, but certainly if the Rams can put 8-9 men in the box and slow down the leagues number one rushing offense and force them into 3rd and long passing situations they can take advantage. The Rams 20th ranked pass defense has a lot of youth up front, but this group has managed to do a good job of bringing pressure; they have 36 sacks (ranked 6th) this season.
Offensively the Rams will rely on their workhorse, running back Steven Jackson (1,081 yards rushing this season). Jackson has been very effective this season carrying the ball and recently he has been running hard; 73 carries in his last three starts. A big key for the Rams offense to have success against the Chiefs will be to use Jackson early to set the tone and set up play action.
Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford has done a good job lately taking care of the ball; which will be key today. Bradford has only turned the ball over five times in his last 8 starts. Bradford lacks the playmakers on the outside to really attack the Chiefs secondary deep, but a ball control offense and ball security will afford the kid to take his shots from time to time. The Chiefs 22nd ranked pass defense is very young and aggressive; their 20 touchdowns allowed would indicate they can be had.
My Pick; Rams 23, Chiefs 13
There is nothing new to this story, other than the fact this is a meaningful divisional game with playoff implications riding on the outcome. What you have is a dome team built on finesse and speed, taking on a smash-mouth blue-collar team that likes to grind it out in the trenches. Usually home field dictates this matchup, but with these two you never know.
Perhaps this big story here is the Colts entering this game needing the win. The Jags currently reside in first place and have the luxury of an early season victory over the Colts. With that in mind, this game becomes a very critical matchup for Indy and Peyton Manning, if they have any aspirations of playing in January.
When the Colts have the ball today, they will be relying heavily on Manning and his throwing arm. Manning will have wide receiver Austin Collie back in the lineup to go with his regular arsenal of receivers; Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Jacob Tamme, and he will need them. Over the past month or so, the Colts running back has been very suspect and inconsistent.
There’s no question today success on offense will have to come from the air and for Manning and company the good news is, there is success to be had. The Jaguars rank (28th) near the bottom of the league against the pass and have allowed 24 touchdowns and 50 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season; expect Manning to attack early and often throughout the game.
Defensively the Colts defense is going to have its’ work cut out for it today; Indy’s defense ranks 29th against the run allowing 4.8 yards per carry. The Jaguars are the leagues 2nd best rushing offense and will undoubtedly pound the ball; their 432 attempts also ranks second. If the Colts are going to slow down Jacksonville and their running back Maurice Jones-Drew, they will have to sell out against the run with 8-9 man fronts all day.
If the Colts have any success slowing down the run and forcing the Jags into more passing situations, this will give their pass rushers, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis an opportunity to disrupt the Jaguars 29th ranked passing offense. Quarterback David Garrard has struggled in the pocket this season with 16 turnovers.
The Jags will stick with the run as long as they can, so the Colts must do a good job of clogging lanes, sealing the edge and wrapping up MJD if they hope to have any success defensively. Even one dimensional, Manning and company will pose a lot of problems for the Jaguars defense. If the Colts can do a great job today protecting Manning (14 sacks allowed this season), he should have lots of success moving the ball and attacking the defense.
This is a big game which you like to give the edge to a player like Peyton manning and that may be the biggest difference and biggest key for the Colts to win this one.
My Pick; Colts 28, Jaguars 27
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