KEYS 2 SUNDAY

December 26th, 2010, Sunday

Keys 2 Sunday

Week 16 Previews & Picks
(just a few)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
….even with the playoffs clinched the Patriots still have a lot on the line entering Sunday’s matchup with the Bills. What a win means for the Pats; a division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Patriots have been riding the arm of quarterback Tom Brady (31 passing touchdowns this season) and there’s no reason to believe that they won’t stick with what works. In Week 14 Brady already proved he is more than capable of handling the element; passed for 369 yards with two touchdowns against Bears in a winter-wonderland-like setting. Brady has won twelve straight starts against the Bills, including their earlier matchup this season at Foxboro in week 3. In their first meeting Brady passed for 252 yards with three touchdowns. These two teams maybe very familiar with each other, but no question the key for New England starts and ends with their quarterback.
(My Pick; Patriots 33, Bills 24)

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
….the Jets are coming off a big win, to sustain their new found momentum on the road this week, they will need to pressure Bears’ quarterback Jay Cutler. If they can get pressure in his face, they just may be able to force a few errant throws. Rex Ryan knows it’s going to be tough grinding out the yards on the ground with both Tomlinson and Greene, so he’ll need his young quarterback (Mark Sanchez) to be able to make a few downfield throws to both of his talented receivers; Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. Sanchez will also need to find his tight end over the middle.
(My Pick; Jets 21, Bears 13)

San Francisco 49ers @ St.Louis Rams
….this one by no means has showdown written all over it, but it is a critical divisional matchup that could very well decide the division. The Rams offense has struggled the past several weeks, so the Niners will need to bring lots of pressure and run blitzes to keep the Rams offense out of rhythm. Head coach Mike Singletary has decided to Troy Smith under center; Smith has better mobility, a stronger arm, and gives the Niners offense a lift they will need on Sunday. Singletary will try to run with Westbrook and Dixon, but Smith is going to have to stretch the field and find his tight end (Vernon Davis) today if they are to win.
(My Pick; 49ers 27, Rams 17)

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
….there is no easy Sunday and even when facing the 3-11 Bengals, the Chargers will not have an easy task. The biggest element they could face will be the elements; snow and cold. The Bengals are going to try and run the ball, so the Bolts will need to shut down Benson and force Palmer to beat them today (without TO and with a limited Ochocinco). Rivers on the other side will have to rely on his strong arm getting the ball to his playmakers downfield; Vincent Jackson, Legedu Naanee, and Randy McMichael. Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews will need to anchor the ground game against the leagues 22nd ranked run defense.
(My Pick; Chargers 31, Bengals 23)

A few more picks...

Baltimore @ Cleveland….
…the Ravens will use their smothering defense to corral and slow down running back Peyton Hillis trying to force rookie quarterback Colt McCoy to beat them through the air. Running back Ray Rice will be the key to the Ravens offense; it will be important to utilize him in both the ground and air attack.
(My Pick; Ravens 23, Browns 16)

Washington @ Jacksonville
….without Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars offense will take a huge hit in the run game. The Redskins should be able to keep the Jags in long passing situations and put more pressure on quarterback David Garrard. Offensively expect to see a lot of Ryan Torain early, but don’t be surprised to see quarterback Rex Grossman attack the Jaguars 29th ranked pass defense downfield.
(My Pick; Redskins 28, Jaguars 20)

THAT'S MY TAKE

December 18th, 2010 Saturday

THAT’S MY TAKE

San Diego Chargers: They Could Be The Most Feared Team in the Playoffs

Sure that’s a loaded statement at best as well it should be seeing as how the Chargers are currently outside the playoff bubble looking in, but as it so often does the December moon and stars could once again be re-aligning for another late season miracle. Slow starter’s they may be, but it seems the Chargers always find a way to kick it in at the right time and this season appears to be no different than any other in the past.

Just two weeks ago, the Chargers dropped an important divisional matchup with the Raiders that left them two games behind the division leading Chiefs. It was also the first time since 2005 that the Chargers had dropped a game in the month of December. Sitting at 6-6, coming off an embarrassing 28-13 loss to the Raiders, the Chargers entered their critical week 14 matchup with the Chiefs barely hanging on to football life support; a loss would leave them three games back with three to play and no chance at winning a tie-breaker.

Well that was nearly two weeks ago and my “how things can suddenly change!”

The Chargers responded with their typical holiday cheer in week 14 with a dominant performance over there divisional rivals (Chiefs) winning by a score of 31-0. The visiting Chiefs were without their starting quarterback Matt Cassel (suffered appendectomy earlier in the week), and like sharks in the water the Bolts smelled the blood and feasted on their visitors.

Continuing with their regular seasons greetings the Bolts bombed the visiting 49ers on Thursday night 34-7. The win marked their second in the month of December this season and gave them 21 wins out of their last 22 meetings in the jovial month.

Could it be once again the Chargers are doing just what they do; a slow start and strong finish? It certainly seems like everything is now setting up for this to happen. The win over the Chiefs moved the Bolts to a game back and their early win this week (on Thursday) now puts the Chargers just a ½ game behind the division leaders. With Cassel’s health still in question, there’s a chance the Chiefs may have to play without him this week on the road in St. Louis; no easy task for a team that is 2-5 traveling this season.

So, what if the Chiefs do lose this Sunday to the Rams, in the scheme of all things post season related what would this really mean? If Chiefs do lose and both teams (Chiefs and Chargers) win out finishing tied at 10-6, the Chargers would get the divisional title by virtue of a better conference record.

And this is not what the rest of the league wants to hear or see come to fruition.

As it has been, the way of the Bolts for the past several seasons; slow starters, turn it on late, what they have been doing lately and will likely need to do to reach the post season is also likely to put a very big scare in the rest of the league (in particular their AFC counterparts).

When the 2010 season began, there were a lot of folks that pegged this San Diego team as one of few that would still be playing in late January. And like they have done in the past, their slow start was a cause for concern for a lot of the same folks that had them going deep into the playoffs. Injuries, inconsistent and poor play on specials teams had really sabotaged this team’s chances at making a serious run early. Now that we have reached the latter part of the season, the Chiefs had their opportunity less than two weeks ago (in week 14) to put the Chargers away, but just when they had them down and nearly out the Bolts have come back!

The Chargers have managed to clean up some of that sloppy special teams play, but what has really been the secret to their success and that has been working well; their explosive offense ranked 3rd in scoring (27.7-points/game) and ranked 2nd in passing (397-yards/game). Not to be overshadowed by their offensive counterparts, the Bolts number one ranked defense can’t be overlooked as one of the big reasons for the team’s success as well.

On Thursday night in week 15 the defense was impressive, limiting their opponents to just 192 total net yards and sacking the opposing quarterback six times. This was just a sample of what the defense has been doing all season; number one pass defense (170-yards/game), number four run defense (89-yards/game), and 44 sacks that lead the league.

With their defense playing this well (7 points allowed in their last two games), you would think that would be enough to have to worry about. If you managed to catch a glimpse of the Thursday night contest, you may have noticed an unfamiliar number roaming all over the field playing catch with quarterback Philip Rivers and scoring touchdowns.

His number is only unfamiliar because of the time he has missed (hold out and suspension), but the San Diego faithful surely recognized number 83, wide receiver Vincent Jackson. As well they should, he was just doing was fans had become accustomed to seeing him do; big plays and big catches.

Facing a talented and playmaking defense (three touchdowns this season) like the Chargers is enough to put a little fear in most opponents, but add an offense like one the Bolts can boast; and it becomes a nightmare.

Tom Brady may be the most feared quarterback in the league at the moment, but I can tell you no team in this league is going to want to face Philip Rivers ( 4,141 yards, 29 touchdowns) and the San Diego Chargers in January, especially with them playing this well and how much more healthier they may be in the post season.

With the 6’5” Vincent Jackson (three touchdowns Thursday night) back in the lineup and apparently ready to take on the world with Rivers, the Chargers offense (65 points scored in their last two games) looks awesome. With 10 days between their next game the Chargers now have time to get even healthier. The Bolts were minus their 6’5” wide receiver Malcom Floyd and receiver Patrick Crayton, who both look on track to be back for week 16.

As the Bolts get healthy and you look at their finishing schedule with the Bengals (2-11) and the Broncos (3-10), they do look like money to win out. The big question will come down to, can the Chiefs keep pace; they finish this week at St. Louis (6-7), home against Tennessee (5-8) in week 16, and their season finale at home with the Raiders (6-7). No matter how you look at it, the stars just keep lining up for the Chargers and another December run.

Rivers leads all quarterbacks with over 4,000 yards passing and 29 touchdowns (tied with Brady) this season and he has done this with a patch work of receivers. Now that his best weapons are getting healthy and he has his best one back, we could be seeing the rebirth of “Air Coryell.”

The Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has yet to mentioned, because he is nursing a foot injury that will likely keep him sidelined until the post season (should the Chargers make it). And then there is that for opponents to worry about too; even that is enough to worry the Brady Bunch in Foxboro.

A healthy Chargers lineup in the post season could look like this; Rivers under center, Jackson (already 3 touchdowns) and Floyd (6 touchdowns) at the receiver’s spots, Gates (10 touchdowns) at tight end, Mike Tolbert (11 rushing touchdowns) lining up in the backfield. How do you stop that? Can you stop that?

The likely opponents in the post season that are going to have all kinds of matchup problems with San Diego could include; the Patriots (ranked 31st against the pass), the Steelers (ranked 23rd), the Jaguars (ranked 28th), the Ravens (ranked 14th), and the Jets (ranked 9th). The problem too for most of these teams, only the Steelers (39 sacks in 2010) do a great job of bringing pressure.

The Chargers have had their problems with protection (32 sacks allowed this season), but in their last two games the offensive line has only allowed three sacks. With time Rivers has been able to complete better than 75 percent of his passes (in his last two starts).

On paper alone the Chargers boast a very scary looking “village of the (well over 6’) giants” line up. On the gridiron, they pose a more surreal nightmare for opposing defenses with their size and playmakers. With the accurate arm of Rivers and the sheer size of his targets, the Charger’s offense will present a lot of problems for opposing defenses and undoubtedly will do a lot of damage as well.

No matter how you look at this, the Chargers look like a complete team starting to fire on all cylinders (top rated offense, number one defense). They are in many ways like a fast approaching giant tsunami; your only hope to survive is to get out of the way.

They may be only 8-6 in the standings, but the rest of the league knows the best way to handle this on coming disaster is to avoid it all together. You can bet there are going to be a lot more Chiefs fans outside the Missouri area rooting for a win in St. Louis on Sunday.

If this thing goes the Chargers way and they make the post season, there are going to be a lot of folks once again singing the praises of the team (Chargers) they picked to win the Super Bowl way back in September; and who could argue?

Just my take.

By David Ortega

KEYS 2 SUNDAY

December 11th, 2010, Saturday

Keys 2 Sunday

Week 14 Previews

Oakland Radiers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

When you match these two teams up, they are very similar In the fact that offensively they are built around the ground game. The Raiders (149 rushing yards/game) rank third in the league in rushing while the Jaguars (151 yards rushing/game) are ranked second. It goes without saying that the key to winning on Sunday will be stopping the ground game.

Neither the Raiders (ranked 23rd against the run) nor the Jaguars (ranked17th) have been very successful this season at stopping the run this season, so whatever team finds success is likely to pull this one out.

Last week the Raiders held the Chargers in check (21 yards rushing on 8 carries), but in their two matchups prior they allowed a total of 348 yards on the ground on 82 carries (4.2 yards per run). Meanwhile the Jags defense is coming off an impressive showing against the Titans in week 13 limiting Chris Johnson to just 53 yards on 13 carries.

Over their last four games the Jaguars defense has held its’ opponents to 88 yards rushing per game on 22 carries; some of those opponents included Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Peyton Hillis.

The Raider have lacked consistency under center and while the Jaguars’ David Garrard hasn’t exactly lit up the boards he has been able to make more plays this season (17 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns).

Steady play by Garrard will be a must, but the big key for the Jaguars will be slowing down both Raider running backs Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. For the Jaguars offense, Maurice Jones-Drew (5 straight 100-yard games rushing) will be the key to the ground game

My Pick; Jaguars 30, Raiders 20

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

The forecast in Chicago for Sunday’s matchup is cold and windy; just like the Bears like it. No one could have imagined the Bears would be in their current position this deep in the season, sitting atop the North division at 9-3. One of their keys to their recent success that they will need on Sunday is patience on offense.

The Bears are running a more balanced attack in recent weeks averaging 33 rushing plays per game over their last four. As well as the Patriots have been playing, they have proven to be susceptible to the run allowing 281 yards in their last two games. With severe weather conditions the ground game will be a huge key for the Bears offensively and defensively. If Cutler and the gang can control the clock and keep the ball out of tom Brady’s hands, they will have a great chance to win on Sunday.

The Patriots and Tom Brady just do what they do week in and week out and for opposing defenses finding a weakness is not easy. Brady likes to get the ball out of his hands quickly and put it into the hands of his playmakers, big and small. It will be no easy task, but like the 2007 Giants that faced the undefeated Pats, the key for the Bears will be getting pressure on Brady from their front four. Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher will be huge factors in trying to slow down Brady.

Disruption up the middle, pressure on the edge and jamming the small receivers coming out of the back field to throw off their timing will critical if the Bears are to be successful. Fortunately for Chicago weather and field conditions are likely to slow down this game and move at a pace better suited for the Monsters of the Midway.

Bear’s quarterback Jay cutler will see his share of exotic looks and lots of pressure, taking care of the ball and being patient will be at a premium. With only one turnover in their last two games and five touchdown passes Cutler seems ready for the task.

My Pick; Bears 27, Patriots 21

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

When the Chiefs meet the Chargers on Sunday you have the league’s best rushing offense (Chiefs) facing one of the league’s best run defenses. This contest has all the makings of a great matchup between two bitter divisional rivals and could end up being so much more.

For the Chargers, this is basically their season; a loss here and they can’t win the division. Having been swept by the Raiders a loss here to the Chiefs would complete a second sweep by another division opponent. A loss would drop the Chargers three games back with three to play and they would be in a position where the best they can do is tie the Chief; they would lose the tie-breaker.

The obvious key for the Chargers on Sunday is stopping the Chiefs vaunted running game averaging 175 yards on the ground per game. The good news for the Chargers, while stopping the Chiefs may not appear easy it can be done. Kansas City tends to be hot and cold on the road. Against Seattle (ranked 22nd) in week 12 the Chiefs blistered the Seahawks for 270 yards, but in week 10 at Denver they could only muster 51 yards rushing.

The bad news for the Chargers, while they are ranked 5th they are coming off a poor performance at the hands of the Raiders where they allowed 251 yards rushing. This should be a huge concern, but the Chargers may catch a break with the Chiefs starting quarterback Matt Cassel expected to miss. Without Cassel I would expect to see the Chargers throw a lot of 8 and 9 man in the box looks to bottle up the ground game of Kansas City.

On the other side for San Diego, they are getting healthy on offense and could have Vincent Jackson available on Sunday. Even without V-Jax, Philip Rivers and company should have enough weapons to outscore the Chiefs offense that will likely struggle with back Brodie Croyle (9 career starts in five seasons).

My Pick; Chargers 23, Chiefs 13