Saturday, December 11, 2010

KEYS 2 SUNDAY

December 11th, 2010, Saturday
Keys 2 Sunday


Week 14 Previews

Oakland Radiers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

When you match these two teams up, they are very similar In the fact that offensively they are built around the ground game. The Raiders (149 rushing yards/game) rank third in the league in rushing while the Jaguars (151 yards rushing/game) are ranked second. It goes without saying that the key to winning on Sunday will be stopping the ground game.

Neither the Raiders (ranked 23rd against the run) nor the Jaguars (ranked17th) have been very successful this season at stopping the run this season, so whatever team finds success is likely to pull this one out.

Last week the Raiders held the Chargers in check (21 yards rushing on 8 carries), but in their two matchups prior they allowed a total of 348 yards on the ground on 82 carries (4.2 yards per run). Meanwhile the Jags defense is coming off an impressive showing against the Titans in week 13 limiting Chris Johnson to just 53 yards on 13 carries.

Over their last four games the Jaguars defense has held its’ opponents to 88 yards rushing per game on 22 carries; some of those opponents included Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Peyton Hillis.

The Raider have lacked consistency under center and while the Jaguars’ David Garrard hasn’t exactly lit up the boards he has been able to make more plays this season (17 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns).

Steady play by Garrard will be a must, but the big key for the Jaguars will be slowing down both Raider running backs Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. For the Jaguars offense, Maurice Jones-Drew (5 straight 100-yard games rushing) will be the key to the ground game

My Pick; Jaguars 30, Raiders 20

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

The forecast in Chicago for Sunday’s matchup is cold and windy; just like the Bears like it. No one could have imagined the Bears would be in their current position this deep in the season, sitting atop the North division at 9-3. One of their keys to their recent success that they will need on Sunday is patience on offense.

The Bears are running a more balanced attack in recent weeks averaging 33 rushing plays per game over their last four. As well as the Patriots have been playing, they have proven to be susceptible to the run allowing 281 yards in their last two games. With severe weather conditions the ground game will be a huge key for the Bears offensively and defensively. If Cutler and the gang can control the clock and keep the ball out of tom Brady’s hands, they will have a great chance to win on Sunday.

The Patriots and Tom Brady just do what they do week in and week out and for opposing defenses finding a weakness is not easy. Brady likes to get the ball out of his hands quickly and put it into the hands of his playmakers, big and small. It will be no easy task, but like the 2007 Giants that faced the undefeated Pats, the key for the Bears will be getting pressure on Brady from their front four. Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher will be huge factors in trying to slow down Brady.

Disruption up the middle, pressure on the edge and jamming the small receivers coming out of the back field to throw off their timing will critical if the Bears are to be successful. Fortunately for Chicago weather and field conditions are likely to slow down this game and move at a pace better suited for the Monsters of the Midway.

Bear’s quarterback Jay cutler will see his share of exotic looks and lots of pressure, taking care of the ball and being patient will be at a premium. With only one turnover in their last two games and five touchdown passes Cutler seems ready for the task.

My Pick; Bears 27, Patriots 21

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

When the Chiefs meet the Chargers on Sunday you have the league’s best rushing offense (Chiefs) facing one of the league’s best run defenses. This contest has all the makings of a great matchup between two bitter divisional rivals and could end up being so much more.

For the Chargers, this is basically their season; a loss here and they can’t win the division. Having been swept by the Raiders a loss here to the Chiefs would complete a second sweep by another division opponent. A loss would drop the Chargers three games back with three to play and they would be in a position where the best they can do is tie the Chief; they would lose the tie-breaker.

The obvious key for the Chargers on Sunday is stopping the Chiefs vaunted running game averaging 175 yards on the ground per game. The good news for the Chargers, while stopping the Chiefs may not appear easy it can be done. Kansas City tends to be hot and cold on the road. Against Seattle (ranked 22nd) in week 12 the Chiefs blistered the Seahawks for 270 yards, but in week 10 at Denver they could only muster 51 yards rushing.

The bad news for the Chargers, while they are ranked 5th they are coming off a poor performance at the hands of the Raiders where they allowed 251 yards rushing. This should be a huge concern, but the Chargers may catch a break with the Chiefs starting quarterback Matt Cassel expected to miss. Without Cassel I would expect to see the Chargers throw a lot of 8 and 9 man in the box looks to bottle up the ground game of Kansas City.

On the other side for San Diego, they are getting healthy on offense and could have Vincent Jackson available on Sunday. Even without V-Jax, Philip Rivers and company should have enough weapons to outscore the Chiefs offense that will likely struggle with back Brodie Croyle (9 career starts in five seasons).

My Pick; Chargers 23, Chiefs 13

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